Weekly Market Snapshot

November 17, 2017

Market Commentary
by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist

There was a lot of economic data, but nothing to alter the overall picture. Industrial production was stronger than anticipated, with upward revisions to previous months. Ex-autos, factory output appears to be picking up following a somewhat flat trend from February to August. Retail sales and residential construction figures were consistent with a rebound from hurricane effects. Consumer price inflation was as expected. The Producer Price Index surprised to the upside (not a big deal) with mixed pipeline pressures (higher over the last year). 

The House passed its version of a tax-cut bill. The Senate added and subtracted elements, but couldn’t complete its version before the Thanksgiving break. The two plans will have to be reconciled, but there is enormous pressure to get it done by the end of the year (campaign contributions are riding on it).  

The stock market was choppy. The bond market ignored the data and reacted to stocks. 

Next week, the economic calendar is thin, but we won’t be by the end of the week. Have a great Thanksgiving.


Indices

  Last Last Week YTD return %
DJIA 23458.36 23516.26 18.70%
NASDAQ 6793.29 6714.94 26.20%
S&P 500 2585.64 2579.85 15.49%
MSCI EAFE 1985.58 2013.79 17.91%
Russell 2000 1486.88 1496.55 9.56%

Consumer Money Rates

  Last 1 year ago
Prime Rate 4.25 3.50
Fed Funds 1.16 0.41
30-year mortgage 3.97 4.03

Currencies

  Last 1 year ago
Dollars per British Pound 1.320 1.242
Dollars per Euro 1.177 1.063
Japanese Yen per Dollar 113.06 110.12
Canadian Dollars per Dollar 1.276 1.352
Mexican Peso per Dollar 19.056 20.429

Commodities

  Last 1 year ago
Crude Oil 57.14 45.42
Gold 1278.20 1216.90

Bond Rates

  Last 1 month ago
2-year treasury 1.72 1.56
10-year treasury 2.37 2.35
10-year municipal (TEY) 3.12 2.98

Treasury Yield Curve – 11/17/2017


As of close of business 11/16/2017


S&P Sector Performance (YTD) – 11/17/2017



As of close of business 11/16/2017


Economic Calendar

November 20  —  Leading Economic Indicators (October)
November 21  —  Existing Home Sales (October)
November 22  —  Jobless Claims (week ending November 18)
 —  Durable Goods Orders (October)
November 23  —  Thanksgiving (markets closed)
November 27  —  New Home Sales (October)
November 28  —  CB Consumer Confidence (November)
 —  Powell Nomination Hearing
November 29  —  Real GDP (3Q17, 2nd estimate)
December 1  —  ISM Manufacturing Index
 —  Motor Vehicle Sales (November)
December 8  —  Employment Report (November)
December 13  —  FOMC Policy Decision (Yellen press conference)
December 14  —  Retail Sales (November)
December 25  —  Christmas Holiday

 

All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the Research Department of Raymond James & Associates, Inc. and are subject to change. There is no assurance any of the forecasts mentioned will occur or that any trends mentioned will continue in the future. Investing involves risks including the possible loss of capital. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. International investing is subject to additional risks such as currency fluctuations, different financial accounting standards by country, and possible political and economic risks, which may be greater in emerging markets. While interest on municipal bonds is generally exempt from federal income tax, it may be subject to the federal alternative minimum tax, and state or local taxes. In addition, certain municipal bonds (such as Build America Bonds) are issued without a federal tax exemption, which subjects the related interest income to federal income tax. Municipal bonds may be subject to capital gains taxes if sold or redeemed at a profit. Taxable Equivalent Yield (TEY) assumes a 35% tax rate.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index of 30 widely held stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ National Stock Market. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks. The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) index is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of the international stock market. The Russell 2000 index is an unmanaged index of small cap securities which generally involve greater risks. An investment cannot be made directly in these indexes. The performance noted does not include fees or charges, which would reduce an investor's returns. U.S. government bonds and treasury bills are guaranteed by the US government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and guaranteed principal value. U.S. government bonds are issued and guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest by the federal government. Treasury bills are certificates reflecting short-term (less than one year) obligations of the U.S. government.

Commodities trading is generally considered speculative because of the significant potential for investment loss. Markets for commodities are likely to be volatile and there may be sharp price fluctuations even during periods when prices overall are rising. Specific sector investing can be subject to different and greater risks than more diversified investments. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the annual total market value of all final goods and services produced domestically by the U.S. The federal funds rate (“Fed Funds”) is the interest rate at which banks and credit unions lend reserve balances to other depository institutions overnight. The prime rate is the underlying index for most credit cards, home equity loans and lines of credit, auto loans, and personal loans. Material prepared by Raymond James for use by financial advisors. Data source: Bloomberg, as of close of business November 16, 2017.

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